00458055

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1985/1046/1046-008.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...Dust&publication_year=1985

The "Third Wave" or the information society is changing our society. The major effects are: (a) reductions in traditional labor activities such as manufacturing and data gathering; (b) growth in jobs that deal mainly with information; such jobs can be located almost anywhere, including the home; and (c) growth in available leisure time, and an increase in the potential for achieving living style objectives. One possible outcome of these major effects is a dramatic restructuring of urban areas including the decentralization of urban nodes over a whole region. This is in direct contrast to the industrial society in which the urban structure has a highly centralized, hierarchical form focusing on the regional or metropolitan city as aptly described by central place theory. This growth pattern reversal dramatically changes the requirements for transportation facilities from those contained in existing transport facility plans. The effect of the third wave may result in the placement of many existing plans at risk in that the projected transport demands may not materialize. In this paper an approach to evaluating the risks to transport investment in southern Ontario is described. A series of exploratory models is being developed to implement the concepts presented in the paper. By incorporating other dimensions of the locational behavior of individuals, these models are extensions of economic base theory and the Lowry model.

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Transportation and Land Development.

01419436

pp 50-58

1985

Transportation Research Record

0309039622

Print

Figures (6) ; References (11)

Decentralization; Land use; Location; Residential areas; Residential location; Travel patterns; Trend (Statistics); Urban areas; Work trips

Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I10: Economics and Administration

TRIS, TRB

Sep 30 1988 12:00AM

• A METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING BELTROUTE CORRIDOR LAND USE IMPACTS (ABRIDGMENT)
• AN APPLICATION OF THE LENS MODEL IN MEASURING RETAIL ATTRACTIVENESS AND THE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE POLICIES ON A RETAIL AREA
• DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL TO STUDY THE IMPACTS OF RAPID URBAN GROWTH ON THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR--THE CASE OF CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA
• EFFECTS OF FREEWAY STAGE CONSTRUCTION ON NEARBY LAND USES AND VEHICLE USER COSTS
• ESTIMATING ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS OF TRANSIT INVESTMENTS
• HIGHWAY INVESTMENT AS A REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY TOOL
• IMPLEMENTATION OF DOWNTOWN AUTOMOBILE-USE MANAGEMENT PROJECTS
• INTERNAL CIRCULATION WITHIN MAJOR ACTIVITY CENTERS: ISSUES AND PROBLEMS
• THE DOWNTOWN HARTFORD TRANSPORTATION PROJECT: PUBLIC-PRIVATE COLLABORATION ON TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS
• THE WORK-BASED RETAIL ACTIVITY MODEL: A TOOL FOR DOWNTOWN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
• TRANSPORTATION PLANNING FOR A HIGH TECHNOLOGY CORRIDOR IN SUBURBAN PHILADELPHIA
• TRANSPORTATION PLANNING FOR ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT AREAS (ABRIDGMENT)
• URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODELS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO REGION: FROM PLUM TO POLIS