00390643

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1984/952/952-001.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...unch&publication_year=1984

In this paper a procedure for modeling the choices made in urban American households among personal vehicles on the bases of cost, passenger capacity, and engine technology is discussed, and those preferences to the years 1990 and 2000 are projected. The results of this disaggregate technique are used by the other predictive research tasks undertaken by Argonne National Laboratory in a project entitled Technology Assessment of Productive Conservation in Urban Transportation (TAPCUT). In these projections vehicles with standard spark-ignition (Otto-cycle) engines continue to dominate automobile holdings and new car purchases in either of two socioeconomic scenarios under any of three settings (an existing policy set and two alternative conservation strategies). From 1990, small cars (which seat four or fewer passengers) dominate urban holdings and sales in two of the three TAPCUT energy strategies (the exception being the strategy that emphasizes individual travel), and this holds true with only a minor variation in both socioeconomic scenarios. Advanced-technology vehicles are most successful under the individual travel strategy. Vehicle characteristics are far more significant than demographic descriptors in estimating household vehicle choice when using this modeling approach.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Energy Conservation and Transportation Demand.Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01419842

pp 1-11

1984

Transportation Research Record

309036720

Print

Figures (13) ; References (15) ; Tables (8)

Automobile ownership; Choice models; Compact automobiles; Costs; Energy; Households; Mathematical models; Purchasing; Sales; Socioeconomic factors; Technology; Urban areas; Vehicle characteristics

Capacity; Concept vehicles; Models

Economics; Energy; Finance; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 1985 12:00AM

• ENERGY-CONSERVATION STRATEGIES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON TRAVEL DEMAND
• PROJECTION OF TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AUTOMOBILES AND TRANSIT VEHICLES FOR POLICY ANALYSIS
• SELECTION OF CASE STUDY CITIES AND EXPANSION TO NATIONAL URBAN TOTALS
• SKETCH-PLANNING MODEL FOR URBAN TRANSPORTATION POLICY ANALYSIS
• TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCTIVE CONSERVATION IN URBAN TRANSPORTATION: AN OVERVIEW