00386433

Component

https://onlinepubs.trb.or...trcircular/277/277-011.pdf

This paper updates a presentation given at the Transportation Research Board's Second International Workshop on Aviation Forecasting in March 1981. The paper, titled "Aircraft Technology, Productivity and Operations, Impact on Costs and Yields" discussed the long-term aircraft and operational factors influencing real (inflation-adjusted) air fare levels; the United States domestic trunk airlines' reaction to the rapidly escalating fuel prices during the 1973-1979 time period; and the outlook for real air fares in the 1980s given uncertain fuel costs and domestic airlines deregulation enacted in late 1978. This paper reviews the conclusions of the 1981 presentation. The data have been updated through 1982, extended back to 1973 and expanded to include more detailed labor and crew cost data. Conclusions are summarized as to the long term impact of the two fuel crises and deregulation on the domestic operations and profitability of U.S. trunk airlines. The prsentation also includes some thoughts on the topic: "Is there a case for airline regulation as a public utility." (Author)

This paper was published in Transportation Research Circular N277, Prospects for World Aviation. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

p. 41-54

1984-5

Transportation Research Circular

Digital/other

Figures (4) ; Tables (16)

Air transportation; Deregulation; Energy resources; Fuels; Impact studies; Supply

Energy crisis

Aviation; Economics; Energy; Highways; Law; Planning and Forecasting; Society

TRIS, TRB

Jun 28 1984 12:00AM

• A FORECAST USER SPEAKS OUT
• AIR CARGO
• AIRLINE PASSENGERS AND CHANGING AIRLINE COMPETITION
• BUSINESS AVIATION
• COMMUTER INDUSTRY
• ENERGY OUTLOOK
• FINANCING THE UNITED STATES AIRLINE INDUSTRY IN THE 1980S
• INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
• STRATEGIC EXTERNAL FORCES
• SUMMARY AND RESULTS OF SURVEY OF PARTICIPANTS
• THE IMPACT OF DEREGULATION ON AIRPLANE SIZE
• THE UNITED STATES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK