00345965

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1981/820/820-003.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...Tran&publication_year=1981

Transportation is not merely a derived demand but a determinant of new production possibilities. To plan successfully for the development of a region, one must understand the possible causal relationships, feedbacks, and interactions among the different sectors of the region, including the transportation sector. In this study the impacts of three investment strategies for the Essequibo coastal region in Guyana are evaluated by using a computer simulation and system-dynamics methodology. The model consists of three main sectors: demographic, economic (primarily rice production and processing), and transportation. The hypothesized intersectoral relationships were first developed through causal diagrams, which were divided into submodels. Second, the submodels were synthesized to form a comprehensive system-dynamics model represented by approximately 230 equations to evaluate three investment strategies: (a) do nothing, (b) invest in roads only, and (c) invest both in roads and in drainage and irrigation. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the key socioeconomic variables to determine which variables most significantly influence regional behavior. The investment both in roads and in drainage and irrigation provided the greatest net benefit and the most favorable socioeonomic characteristics in terms of population level, regional income per capita, out-migration, and unemployment. Thus, given its financial feasibility, this strategy is recommended. (Author)

This paper appeared in Transportation Research Record No. 820, Land Use and Economic Development. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411628

pp 11-17

1981

Transportation Research Record

030903261X

Print

Figures (5) ; References (3) ; Tables (2)

Agriculture; Developing countries; Drainage; Highway planning; Investments; Irrigation; Regional transportation; Sensitivity; Simulation; Socioeconomic factors; Systems analysis; Transportation planning

Economics; Highways; Hydraulics and Hydrology; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Feb 27 1982 12:00AM

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