00345348

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1981/814/814-003.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...erts&publication_year=1981

Systematic pavement management requires estimates or predictions of future pavement performance so that rational comparisons may be made among alternative courses of action. Performance models are required in two distinct contexts, depending on the pavement management level involved. At the project level, fairly detailed and specific models are required for predicting the performance expected for an individual pavement section. At the network level, general or average prediction models are required to provide estimates of the expected performance for a typical pavement or class of pavements. Accordingly, quite distinct modeling methods are indicated for these two different modeling needs. Performance-modeling requirements and data requirements for both network-level and project-level applications are discussed. An idealized experiment to collect data for performance modeling is presented. A specific performance prediction model based on stochastic concepts and treating pavement deterioration as a Markov process is presented as an example of the development of prediction models for network-level applications. (Author)

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Theory of Pavement Systems. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411623

pp 14-21

1981

Transportation Research Record

60th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

0309032555

Print

Figures (5) ; References (38) ; Tables (1)

Deterioration; Forecasting; Information, data, and knowledge; Markov processes; Mathematical models; Pavement management systems; Pavement performance; Stochastic processes

Data needs

Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways

TRIS, TRB

Jan 29 1982 12:00AM

• BONDED PORTLAND CEMENT CONCRETE RESURFACING
• DESIGN PROCEDURE FOR PREMIUM COMPOSITE PAVEMENT
• ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING IN RESURFACING PROJECT SELECTION
• ILLUSTRATION OF PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT: FROM DATA INVENTORY TO PRIORITY ANALYSIS
• IMPLEMENTATION OF AN URBAN PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
• MODEL STUDY OF ANCHORED PAVEMENT
• PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT STUDY: ILLINOIS TOLLWAY PAVEMENT OVERLAYS
• PRESTRESSED CONCRETE OVERLAY AT O'HARE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: IN-SERVICE EVALUATION
• REHABILITATION OF CONCRETE PAVEMENTS BY USING PORTLAND CEMENT CONCRETE OVERLAYS
• RESURFACING OF PLAIN JOINTED-CONCRETE PAVEMENTS