00342092

Component

https://onlinepubs.trb.or...trcircular/230/230-008.pdf

The outlook for productivity is brighter in the 1980's than it was in the late 1970's. Part of this is attributable to those portions of the Reagan initiatives that will increase overall saving and reduce regulation. However, I believe that much more can be done in the area of capital formation. There are policies available that will raise the personal saving rate, change the composition of personal saving in favor of productive capital, increase private sector research and development, and ensure that new technologies are rapidly incorporated into our capital stock. Policy changes of this kind would raise productivity growth even over the next five years. Following are some more details about the Wharton long run outlook. Despite the improvement in productivity and real growth, the inflation rate and unemployment rate will fall only gradually. By the end of the decade the inflation rate is projected to be about 7.5 percent and the unemployment rate to fall below six percent. The baseline projection assumes that only part of the Reagan package will be enacted. We have assumed that all the business taxes will go into effect, but that only some of the personal taxes will be passed. Specifically, we have assumed that a ten percent tax cut will be enacted over the next year and an additional ten percent will be cut in the mid-1980's. On the expenditure side, we have assumed that two-thirds of the Reagan cuts will be passed and that all the defense increases will go through. This projection used the Wharton Annual Model which since 1970 has incorporated a very detailed production or supply framework. Of all commercially available models, it has the most supply-side detail. (Author)

Report of a Workshop sponsored by the Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting of the Transportation Research Board, held at the National Academy of Sciences, Washington D.C., March 26-27, 1981. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

p. 14-19

1981-8

Transportation Research Circular

Digital/other

Figures (6)

Economic forecasting; Financial capital; Incentives; Inflation; Investments; Policy; Productivity; Unemployment

Economics; Highways; Policy; Society; I10: Economics and Administration

TRIS, TRB

Dec 22 1981 12:00AM

• AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGY
• AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGY, IMPACT ON COSTS AND YIELDS
• AIRLINE CAPITAL NEEDS
• AIRLINE CARGO DEMAND
• AIRLINE PASSENGER DEMAND
• CHANGING NATURE OF AIRLINE COMPETITION
• COMMUNICATIONS--TELECONFERENCING
• COMMUTERS, SHORT HAUL, AND AIRPORTS
• DISCUSSION OF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
• FINANCING THE U.S. AIRLINE INDUSTRY IN THE 1980'S
• FOREIGN COMPETITION AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE IMPACT
• GENERAL AVIATION
• REVIEW AND CRITIQUE OF FAA FORECASTS AND ASSUMPTIONS
• THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
• THE ENERGY OUTLOOK
• THE MACRO BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT