00334194

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1980/775/775-008.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...rson&publication_year=1980

Accuracy of forecasts for population, labor force, employment, and car ownership from 1962 to 1975 in the Baltimore area are examined. Comparisons are made at three levels of zonal aggregation-city and suburbs, traffic districts, and traffic zones. The lack of information about household size and household income made inferences from the results incomplete. The results show that regionwide forecasts were accurate for all the variables except population. However, allocation of these forecasts between city and suburbs, to traffic districts, and to traffic zones was quite inaccurate. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual changes varied from 0.93 to 0.17 for the city zones and from 0.28 to 0.02 for the suburban zones. The corresponding ranges at the traffic-district level were from 0.86 to 0.61 and from 0.36 to 0.30, respectively. The results in the paper point toward large errors and uncertainties in the independent variables of traditional travel-demand models.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411594

pp 38-42

1980

Transportation Research Record

59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

0309031192

Print

References (1) ; Tables (7)

Accuracy; Forecasting; Land use; Mathematical models; Population forecasting; Regional planning; Socioeconomic factors; Suburbs; Travel demand; Urban areas

Socioeconomic data

Baltimore Metropolitan Area

Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Oct 28 1981 12:00AM

• CAR-OWNERSHIP FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN GREAT BRITAIN
• COMPONENTS OF CHANGE IN URBAN TRAVEL
• MODEL SPECIFICATION, MODAL AGGREGATION, AND MARKET SEGMENTATION IN MODE-CHOICE MODELS: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
• NETWORK EQUILIBRATION WITH ELASTIC DEMANDS
• NONRESPONSE PROBLEM IN TRAVEL SURVEYS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION
• SIMPLE EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE DEDICATION OF A FREEWAY LANE TO EXCLUSIVE BUS USE
• STRATEGY STUDIES FOR URBAN TRANSPORT IN THE NETHERLANDS
• STUDY OF THE TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR BETWEEN RIO DE JANEIRO, SAO PAULO, AND CAMPINAS
• TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING BY USING THE NESTED MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL
• USE OF INCREMENTAL FORM OF LOGIT MODELS IN DEMAND ANALYSIS