00302400

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http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1979/714/714-003.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...+May&publication_year=1979

To determine the impact of population and employment distribution changes as well as additional population and employment growth on air quality, regional vehicle kilometers of travel and emissions were obtained for four land-development-pattern scenarios for the year 2000. The scenarios include two activity-center scenarios, a dispersion scenario, and a centralization scenario. A fifth scenario was developed on the basis of additional growth beyond the forecast level. The distribution pattern of population and employment had little or no effect on ambient air quality; the alternative patterns showed little variation. The predicted differences in ambient air quality were less than the potential margin of modeling error. Carbon monoxide levels varied by only 6 percent. The centralization scenario produced the highest concentration, but one that is still 43 percent below the federal standard. Ozone predictions showed even less variation; the range was only 2 percent. Given a regional total, the distribution pattern appears to have little effect on regional air quality. A second result is that, although the absolute level of population has an effect on air pollution levels, these two variables are not directly proportional. A 27 percent increase in population resulted in a 16 percent increase in carbon monoxide emissions but only in an 8 percent increase in predicted maximum ambient concentrations. Large changes in population and employment produced smaller changes in ambient air quality. /Author/

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Transportation and Air Quality. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411547

pp 12-17

1979

Transportation Research Record

0309029619

Print

Photos (9) ; Tables (4)

Activity centers; Air pollution; Carbon monoxide; Development; Employment; Ozone; Physical distribution; Population; Real estate development; Regional economics; Urban growth; Variables; Vehicle miles of travel

Economics; Freight Transportation; Highways; Society; Terminals and Facilities

TRIS, TRB

Jan 30 1980 12:00AM

• EXHAUST EMISSIONS, FUEL CONSUMPTION AND TRAFFIC: RELATIONS DERIVED FROM URBAN DRIVING SCHEDULE DATA
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• SIMPLIFIED METHOD FOR EVALUATION OF CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR REVISION OF STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLANS
• TRAVEL AND EMISSIONS IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES