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Title: CHANGING BASELINE IN TRANSPORTATION SAFETY: AN ASSESSMENT OF SOME KEY FACTORS
Accession Number: 00301594
Record Type: Component
Availability: Find a library where document is available Abstract: Transportation accident experience depends on many factors, some very subtle. Although many countermeasures are introduced to enhance safety, it is also true that the accident experience can vary systematically over time even if no countermeasures are introduced. This variation in the baseline is investigated in this paper. How can the average condition vary if no new changes are introduced? Simply put, there are variations built into the total system--operators, roadway, and vehicles. Four major forces are considered in this paper: the changing age distribution of the automobile-driving population; the changing urban-rural balance; changes in modal trip lengths or vehicle types; and modal shifts induced by transportation system management actions. Each of these is found to have a significant effect (5-10 percent on the baseline), and other such forces can also exist. Clearly, it is not valid to explicity or implicitly assume that the baseline does not change. /Author/
Supplemental Notes: Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Transportation System Safety. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Monograph Title: Monograph Accession #: 01411542
Authors: Byun, JoonhoMcShane, William RCantilli, Edmund JPagination: pp 6-10
Publication Date: 1979
Serial: ISBN: 0309029554
Media Type: Print
Features: Figures
(4)
; References; Tables
(1)
TRT Terms:
Age; Analysis; Competition; Countermeasures; Crash causes; Crash rates; Crash risk forecasting; Drivers; Factor analysis; Highway safety; Modal diversion; Passenger transportation; Physical distribution; Ratios; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Rural areas; Safety; Statistical analysis; Transportation modes; Transportation system management; Trip length; Urban areas; Variables
Uncontrolled Terms: Old TRIS Terms: Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Freight Transportation; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors
Files: TRIS, TRB
Created Date: Nov 27 1979 12:00AM
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