00242693

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...ubs/sr/sr143/sr143-016.pdf

THE VIEW IS EXPRESSED THAT ANALYTIC STRUCTURES CANNOT BE CONSIDERED INDEPENDENTLY OF TRANSPORTATION THEORY, THAT NEITHER IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN MEANINGFUL WAYS OUTSIDE OF THE CONTEXT OF REAL PROBLEMS, AND THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE REAL PROBLEM DICTATES OR AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE ANLYTIC TOOLS REQUIRED FOR ITS SOLUTION. GENERAL QUESTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED ABOUT AN ANALYYTIC STRUCTURE FOR FORECASTING TRAVEL DEMAND ARE REVIEWED. THE INTERACTIONS AMONG TRANSPORTATION SUPPLY, URBAN ACTIVITY DISTRIBUTION, AND TRAVEL DEMAND ARE AREAS WHERE RESEARCH IS NEEDED. THE RESEARCH NEEDS ARE EXAMINED AND DISCUSSED. UNTIL SUCH TIME AS GENERALLY ACCEPTED AGGREGATION METHODS ARE DEVELOPED, THE PROBLEM SHOULD BE ADDRESSED BY THE DEVELOPERS AND USERS OF MODELS. THERE IS A NEED FOR THE FORECASTS TO BE STATED IN PROBABILISTIC TERMS IN THE SENSE THAT AT LEAST SOME MEASURE OF THE VARIABILITY OF THE ESTIMATES SHOULD BE PROVIDED. EFFICIENT METHODS OF STORAGE AND RETRIEVAL WILL BE REQUIRED FOR EFFICIENT USE OF THE DATA. THERE IS A NEED FOR RESEARCH TO DEFINE A MINIMAL STANDARD DATA SET AND METHODS FOR ITS ACQUISITION AND PROCESSING. THERE IS ALSO A NEED FOR MODELS THAT REFLECT THE EFFECTS OF OPERATOR BEHAVIOR ON TRAVEL DEMAND ESTIMATES.

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

00242677

p. 176-177

1973

Highway Research Board Special Report

Conference on Urban Travel Demand Forecasting

Digital/other

Analysis; Behavior; Forecasting; Information systems; Mathematical models; Operators (Persons); Research; Theory; Transportation planning; Travel demand; Urban transportation

Models; Operator

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Research

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jul 16 1982 12:00AM

• ANALYTICAL STRUCTURES--RESOURCE PAPER
• DEMAND FORECASTING FOR LONG-RANGE AND CONTEMPORARY OPTIONS--REPORT
• DEMAND FORECASTING FOR LONG-RANGE AND CONTEMPORARY OPTIONS--RESOURCE PAPER
• DEMAND FORECASTING FOR NEW OPTIONS AND TECHNOLOGY--REPORT
• DEMAND FORECASTING FOR NEW OPTIONS AND TECHNOLOGY--RESOURCE PAPER
• DEMAND FORECASTING FOR SHORT-RANGE AND LOW-CAPITAL OPTIONS--REPORT
• DEMAND FORECASTING FOR SHORT-RANGE AND LOW-CAPITAL OPTIONS--RESOURCE PAPER
• MAJOR ISSUES IN TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
• RELEVANCE OF PLANNING TECHNIQUES TO DECISION-MAKING
• SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS--REPORT
• SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS--RESOURCE PAPER
• THE BOSTON TRANSPORTATION PLANNING REVIEW
• TRAVEL BEHAVIOR--REPORT
• TRAVEL BEHAVIOR: RESOURCE PAPER--ATTITUDINAL MODELS
• TRAVEL BEHAVIOR: RESOURCE PAPER--PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES
• TRAVEL BEHAVIOR: RESOURCE PAPER--TRANSPORTATION DISADVANTAGED
• TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING: ACHIEVEMENTS AND PROBLEMS
• TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING: SOME FOUNDATIONS AND A REVIEW