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Title:

AN APPROACH TO MODELING URBAN GROWTH AND SPATIAL STRUCTURE

Accession Number:

00242584

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309021669

Abstract:

THE APPROACH TO URBAN MODELING PRESENTED HERE SEEKS TO EXTEND THE FOCUS OF MODEL BUILDING ACTIVITY FROM A PRODUCT TO A PROCESS ORIENTATION. BY EMBEDDING MODEL BUILDING IN A DYNAMIC FEEDBACK PROCESS, IT IS HOPED THAT THE RESULTING MODELS WILL CHANGE AND ADAPT TO THE NEEDS OF USERS OVER TIME. THUS A CONTINUUM DEVELOPS BEGINNING WITH MODEL DESIGN AND ENDING WITH PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION, WHICH IN TURN FEED BACK TO MODEL DESIGN TO FORM A LOOP. MODEL BUILDING IS THE SUBJECT OF THE PROCESS, AND THE MODEL PRESENTED HERE INCLUDES THREE PRINCIPAL SUBMODELS: POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, REGIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTING, AND LAND USE. TAKEN TOGETHER, THESE THREE COMPONENTS FORM A MODULE THAT IN TURN CAN BE INTERFACED WITH A VARIETY OF OTHER REGIONAL SIMULATION MODELS. THIS MODULE IS CURRENTLY BEING DESIGNED TO INTERFACE WITH MODELS OF REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION, AIR AND WATER POLLUTION, HEALTH CARE, SITE SERVICING COSTS, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES. BOTH THE MODULE AND THE PROCESS HAVE EVOLVED WITH FLEXIBILITY AND MAXIMUM USE AS PRIME DESIGN CRITERIA. AN EARLY VERSION OF THE MODULE IS ALREADY PROGRAMMED AND OPERATIONAL. WITH WIDESPREAD USE, FURTHER ADDITIONS AND MODIFICATIONS WILL BE MADE BOTH IN THE COMPONENTS AND IN THEIR INTERACTION. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE PAPER, HOWEVER, IS ON USE AND DISSEMINATION OF THE PROCESS. THE MODULE, ALTHOUGH WORTHWHILE IN ITS OWN RIGHT, IS MERELY A PHASE IN THE PROCESS. THE MOST CRITICAL ELEMENT IS PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT IN, AND KNOWLEDGE OF, THE MODELS. AN INFORMED AND CAUTIOUS PUBLIC IS THE KEY TO THE PROCESS AND SPELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRESENT MODEL BUILDING APPROACH AND THOSE THAT HAVE PRECEDED IT.

Supplemental Notes:

Sponsored by Committee on Social, Economic, and Environmental Factors of Transportation. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Monograph Accession #:

01410350

Authors:

Goldberg, Michael A
DAVIS, H CRAIG

Pagination:

p. 42-55

Publication Date:

1973

Serial:

Highway Research Record

Issue Number: 435
Publisher: Highway Research Board

Conference:

52nd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board

Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
Date: 1973-1-22 to 1973-1-26

ISBN:

0309021669

Features:

Figures (6) ; References (41)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Future growth; Models

Subject Areas:

Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Dec 22 1973 12:00AM

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