00241798

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http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/hrr/1972/392/392-016.pdf

THE PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY WAS TO DETERMINE THE STABILITY OF PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED RECREATIONAL DEMAND MODELS, OF THE FORM Y=AE(EXPONENT- BX), WHERE Y IS ANNUAL COUNTY TRIPS TO A RESERVOIR, E=1A, A IS THE Y INTERCEPT OF A NONLINEAR REGRESSION CURVE, B IS THE RATE OF CHANGE IN THE NONLINEAR REGRESSION CURVE, AND X IS DISTANCE TO THE RESERVOIR. THE MODEL UTILIZED EASILY OBTAINABLE AND PREDICTABLE VARIABLES. THE STUDY ILLUSTRATED HOW THE MODEL CAN BE USED TO PREDICT FUTURE ATTENDANCE AND TRAFFIC VOLUMES. THREE PARKS WERE USED IN THE STUDY, AND DATA WERE COLLECTED IN INTERVIEWS WITH 25 PERCENT OF ARRIVING TRIPS AT THE PARK ENTRANCES. ALMOST 12,000 INTERVIEWS WERE CONDUCTED DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1967 THROUGH 1969. THE NEW RESERVOIR MODEL WAS DEVELOPED BY NONLINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS UTILIZING DISTANCE, POPULATION, AND INFLUENCE OF OTHER SIMILAR FACILITIES. TWO EQUATIONS CONSTITUTED THE PREDICTION MODEL: ONE FOR WHEN THERE IS NO OTHER SIMILAR FACILITY CLOSER TO A COUNTY THAN THE RESERVOIR UNDER STUDY, AND ONE FOR WHEN THERE IS ANOTHER SUCH FACILITY CLOSER TO THE COUNTY THAN THE RESERVOIR UNDER STUDY. A COMPARISON SHOWED THAT, WHILE PARAMETER B REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER TIME, THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN PARAMETER A. /AUTHOR/

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01410312

pp 147-156

1972

Highway Research Record

Print

Figures (6) ; References (9) ; Tables (2)

Demand; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Recreation; Regression analysis; Reservoirs; Traffic volume; Travel

Models

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB

Feb 23 1973 12:00AM

• ACCESS TO JOBS AND WILLINGNESS TO TRAVEL
• ACTIVITY-ACCESSIBILITY MODELS OF TRIP GENERATION
• APPROACH TO PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE OF WALKING TIME AND PEDESTRIAN CIRCULATION MODELS
• COMPARISON OF PROBABILISTIC MODAL-CHOICE MODELS: ESTIMATION METHODS AND SYSTEM INPUTS
• CONSISTENCY IN TRANSPORTATION DEMAND AND EVALUATION MODELS
• DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF DIRECT TRAFFIC ESTIMATION METHOD
• DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF A MULTIPATH-ASSIGNMENT TECHNIQUE
• DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS OF AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL IN THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA
• EFFECT OF ZONE SIZE ON TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND TRIP DISTRIBUTION
• FORECASTING TRAVEL DEMAND FOR NEW URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
• MODAL-CHOICE MODEL FOR RELATING DEMAND TO INVESTMENT
• RELIABILITY ANALYSIS IN LAND USE-TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
• SEGMENTED, MULTIMODAL, INTERCITY PASSENGER DEMAND MODEL
• TOWARD AN EFFICIENT HIGHWAY SERVICE ESTIMATOR FOR CONGESTED NETWORKS
• TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT WITHOUT BIAS
• TRAVEL TO OUTDOOR RECREATION AREAS IN KENTUCKY
• USE OF SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS IN TRIP ATTRACTION OF LARGE WORK CENTERS