01838843

Component

https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221079832

The purpose of this paper is to present a risk assessment approach for trackway asset management based on the statistical data analysis of low-level nonconformance rates, a key health monitoring parameter. Four elements in this analysis provide a systems engineering basis for: establishing the initial appearance of a nonconformance, key life cycle parameters, estimated delay mitigation costs, and capacity loss rate as a function of the nonconformance rate. Significant research has been done on risk assessment of severe and catastrophic nonconformances, focusing mainly on the steel rail sub-component. Instead, this research is focused on identifying the effect of aging on deterioration of trackway performance of the invert, ties, plates, and fastener sub-components, exclusive of rails, long before the initiation of impending critical nonconformances. While low-level trackway nonconformances pose virtually no risk to safety or service continuity, they do represent initial phase conditions of the deterioration cycle offering an intriguing opportunity for the study of behavioral forecasting. This research introduces the concept of a serviceability performance degradation rate, in an asset management framework, consisting of: (i) the useful service life expectancy of a device and the ages at which nonconformances at different severity levels can be expected; (ii) developing a serviceability performance degradation rate model; and (iii) forecasting the cost implications of deferred maintenance and associated financial risks. Focus on this early stage offers managers important insight into the assessment of the effect of aging on the asset deterioration cycle, and its associated financial risk, for prioritization of early intervention.

Stephen M. Stark https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1542-823X © National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board 2022.

English

0000-0003-1542-823X

pp 542-553

2022-7

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Web

References (16)

Asset management; Deterioration; Railroad tracks; Risk assessment; Statistical analysis; Structural health monitoring

Data and Information Technology; Finance; Maintenance and Preservation; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors; Terminals and Facilities

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Mar 16 2022 3:06PM