00371344

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1982/870/870-014.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...+Gur&publication_year=1982

The development of forecasts of national travel demand and energy use for automobile and common-carrier intercity travel through the year 2000 is reported. The forecasts are driven by the Passenger Oriented Intercity Network Travel Simulation (POINTS) model, a modified direct-demand model that accounts for competition among modes and destinations. Developed and used to model SMSA-to-SMSA business and nonbusiness travel, POINTS is an improvement over earlier direct-demand models because it includes an explicit representation of the relative accessibilities of cities and a utility-maximizing behavioral multimodal travel function. Within POINTS, path-building algorithms are used to determine city-pair travel times and costs by mode, including intramodal transfer times. Other input data include projections of SMSA population, public- and private-sector employment, and hotel and other retail receipts. Outputs include forecasts of SMSA-to-SMSA person trips and person miles of travel by mode. For the national forecasts, these are expanded to represent all intercity travel (trips longer than 100 miles one way) for two fuel price cases. In both cases, rising fuel prices, accompanied by substantial reductions in modal energy intensities, result in moderate growth in total intercity passenger travel. Total intercity passenger travel is predicted to grow at approximately 1 percent/year, slightly faster than population growth. Automobile travel is forecast to increase slightly more slowly than population and air travel to grow almost twice as fast as population. The net effect of moderate travel growth and substantial reduction in modal energy intensities is a reduction of approximately 50 percent in fuel consumption by the intercity passenger travel market. (Author)

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Energy Conservation and Transportation Demand. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

00380410

HS-035 241

pp 83-90

1982

Transportation Research Record

61st Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

0309033748

Print

Figures (3) ; References (24) ; Tables (5)

Algorithms; Automobile travel; Common carriers; Energy consumption; Forecasting; Intercity travel; Simulation; Travel demand

Economics; Energy; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I10: Economics and Administration

HSL, TRIS, TRB

Mar 31 1983 12:00AM

• ASSESSMENT OF STATE EMERGENCY ENERGY CONSERVATION PLANNING
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• EFFICACY OF URBAN-AREA TRANSPORTATION CONTINGENCY PLANS: A STUDY OF COMPLETED PLANS
• ENERGY CONSERVATION POTENTIAL OF STAGGERED WORK HOURS
• ENERGY IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IMPROVEMENTS
• INDIRECT ENERGY CONSIDERATIONS OF PARK-AND-RIDE LOTS
• LIMITED TRUCKTRAIN: A CONCEPT FOR ENERGY CONSERVATION AND TRUCK PRODUCTIVITY
• MOTOR-VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY: ESTIMATED COST AND BENEFITS FROM 1980 TO 2020
• NATIONAL METHANOL FUEL SYSTEMS: A TRANSPORTATION FUEL PATHWAY
• POTENTIAL FUEL SAVINGS OF GENERAL-FREIGHT CARRIERS OPERATING UNDER BRIDGE FORMULA B GROSS VEHICLE WEIGHT LIMITS
• SIMULATION FOR ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF SUPPLY RESTRICTION POLICIES ON GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
• SUMMARY OF INTERNATIONAL MARITIME FUEL CONSERVATION MEASURES
• TRANSIT USE AND ENERGY CRISES: EXPERIENCE AND POSSIBILITIES
• TRENDS IN ENERGY USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY IN THE U.S. COMMERCIAL AIRLINE INDUSTRY