01781535

Component

https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981211036373

Information and communication technologies have opened the way to guide recent developments in the field of parking. In this paper these technologies are applied to model a decision support system that gives insight into 6-months ahead parking occupancy forecasts for 57 off-street parking locations in Amsterdam. An effect analysis was conducted into the influence of weather-, event-, parking tariff-, and public transport attributes on parking occupancy. The most influential factors on the parking occupancy were the scheduling of artistic and sports events, the addition of a public transport line, and the weather variables thunderstorm, average wind speed, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration. Parking tariffs did not significantly contribute to model performance, which could have been because of the lack of data and time variability in the parking tariffs of the examined parking locations. The forecasting algorithms compared were the seasonal naive model as a benchmark approach, the Box–Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with and without exogenous regressors (SARIMAX and SARIMA, respectively), exponential smoothing models, and the long short-term memory neural network. The SARIMAX model outperformed the other algorithms for the 6-months ahead forecasts according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). By including the event factor, the model improved by 24% based on the RMSE. Weather variables improved the predictive performance by 8%. Future studies could focus on the addition of more event variables, extension into an online model, and the impact of spatial–temporal features on parking occupancy.

Elisabeth S. Fokker https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0926-6310 © National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board 2021.

English

0000-0002-0926-6310

0000-0003-2858-7010

pp 637-654

2022-1

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Web

Figures; Maps; References (37) ; Tables

Algorithms; Box Jenkins forecasting; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Off street parking; Parking fees; Public transit; Special events; Weather conditions

SARIMA (Computer model); SARIMAX (Computer model)

Amsterdam (Netherlands)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Sep 3 2021 3:14PM