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Title:

Exploration of Control Chart Capabilities to Distinguish Random and Anomalous Rare-Events Patterns in Aviation Incident Data

Accession Number:

01764425

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Aviation is an extremely safe mode of transportation. Incidents and accidents are rare. As a result, time-series plots of incident counts may have a high variance, fluctuating up and down. It may be difficult to know whether sudden changes in the incident counts represent fundamental underlying changes in the National Airspace System (assignable causes) or are just attributable to noise (chance causes). Control charts have been widely used in manufacturing to help differentiate between these two types of causes. This paper implements and applies a control-chart methodology to aviation incident and accident data. While standard control charts are based on the assumption of normally distributed data, rare-event counts often follow a Poisson distribution. This paper uses both a standard (normal-based) control chart as well as a  Poisson-based control chart. Several case studies applying the methodology to various accident/incident datasets are presented. The datasets investigated include National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) incidents, Part 91 fatal accidents, Part 121 fatal accidents, near-mid-air collisions, and diverted flights.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AV090 Standing Committee on Aviation Safety, Security and Emergency Management.

Report/Paper Numbers:

TRBAM-21-02773

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

Authors:

Donnelly, Oleksandra S
Shortle, John F

Pagination:

16p

Publication Date:

2021

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 100th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2021-1-5 to 2021-1-29
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board; Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Identifier Terms:

National Airspace System

Subject Areas:

Aviation; Safety and Human Factors

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2021 Paper #TRBAM-21-02773

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 23 2020 11:05AM