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Title: A Gray Swan Decade
Accession Number: 01759376
Record Type: Component
Record URL: Availability: Find a library where document is available Abstract: The outlook for travel in the coming decades is probably the most difficult to predict since forecasting gained prominence. Gleaning lessons from history, the authors consider the growing role of uncertainty in long-range transportation planning, particularly over the next 10 years, as changing demographics and technologies come to bear on travel activity—along with unexpected events like COVID-19. In demographics, for example, for the first time in U.S. history, the population older than 65 will outnumber those younger than 18. This means fewer new drivers, less travel serving the young, and more serving the elderly. Other demographic factors discussed in this article include immigration levels, population distribution, and diversity. Technological influences to consider include the ability of enhanced communication to substitute for travel, mobility-as-a-service, and autonomous vehicles. In addition, future transportation will be influenced by the values and cultures of those making travel decisions. For example, carbon footprints and active living considerations—or, perhaps, the ability to isolate during travel—may weigh on transportation decisions in ways that diminish the historical dominance of cost, time, and safety in making choices. Among the influences of the COVID-19 pandemic will be the support it generated for a dispersed workforce. Repercussions of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic or other gray swans not yet revealed may shape the values and behaviors of the next generation of travelers and decision makers, as well as the resources available for travel and associated infrastructure.
Language: English
Authors: Pisarski, Alan EPolzin, Steven EPagination: pp 40-43
Publication Date: 2020-9
Serial: Media Type: Digital/other
Features: Figures; Photos
TRT Terms: Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General)
Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Nov 18 2020 9:12PM
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