00334189

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1980/775/775-003.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...TTON&publication_year=1980

The prospect of continuing changes in the relative prices of different energy sources and of energy as a whole with respect to the general price level has heightened interest in the forecasting of car ownership and use. In Great Britain, two main schools of thought exist concerning aggregate forecasting techniques. The longer-established of these uses straightforward projections from a logistic curve of car ownership per capita calibrated mainly on the basis of national-level time-series data. This technique, however, has lately been subject to increasing criticism. As a result, a second approach, closer to recent American work and based largely on cross-sectional calibration, has now emerged and is increasingly finding favor in government circles. The developments that have taken place in Great Britain in national-level forecasting techniques are described and assessed. Then recent advances in local-level forecasting are described and particular reference is made to a detailed study of 10,000 households in the West Yorkshire conurbation. Special emphasis is placed on the role of family structure and employment status in influencing car ownership and also on the importance of accessibility to facilities by public transport. In the final section, those areas in which further work is particularly needed and the importance of intrahousehold interaction and the relations among accessibility, public transport provision, multicar ownership, and energy prices are discussed.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411594

pp 11-16

1980

Transportation Research Record

59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

0309031192

Print

References (14) ; Tables (4)

Accessibility; Automobile ownership; Employment; Energy; Forecasting; Households; Methodology; Prices; Public transit; State of the art studies

United Kingdom

Energy; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Oct 28 1981 12:00AM

• ASSESSMENT OF LAND-USE AND SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS IN THE BALTIMORE REGION
• COMPONENTS OF CHANGE IN URBAN TRAVEL
• MODEL SPECIFICATION, MODAL AGGREGATION, AND MARKET SEGMENTATION IN MODE-CHOICE MODELS: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
• NETWORK EQUILIBRATION WITH ELASTIC DEMANDS
• NONRESPONSE PROBLEM IN TRAVEL SURVEYS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION
• SIMPLE EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE DEDICATION OF A FREEWAY LANE TO EXCLUSIVE BUS USE
• STRATEGY STUDIES FOR URBAN TRANSPORT IN THE NETHERLANDS
• STUDY OF THE TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR BETWEEN RIO DE JANEIRO, SAO PAULO, AND CAMPINAS
• TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING BY USING THE NESTED MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL
• USE OF INCREMENTAL FORM OF LOGIT MODELS IN DEMAND ANALYSIS