01727170

Monograph

http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/180033.aspx

In recent public policy debates, much emphasis has been placed on proposals to shift freight from highways to rail. This emphasis is based on goals of reducing emissions and highway congestion. However, prudent planning requires an understanding of the basics of mode choices, what could change those choices, and what the impacts will be. This report provides public policymakers with the factors that shippers and carriers consider when choosing freight modes and provides an analytical methodology to quantify the probability and outcomes of policy-induced modal shifts. For the project, the research team was tasked with (1) describing the factors that influence the current distribution of domestic freight modal share for stages of representative supply chains across industrial sectors; (2) identifying, analyzing, and discussing the factors influencing shippers and carriers to shift or not shift modes (e.g., access to service, modal capacity, equipment, time sensitivity, commodity, security, cost, public policy, and labor issues); (3) describing recent significant examples of freight modal shifts and their causations; (4) identifying, analyzing, and discussing the externalities as well as unintended consequences of policy-induced modal shifts; (5) developing an analytical methodology to evaluate the effects and likelihood of specific policy-induced modal shifts and quantify the total public impacts; and (6) conducting three case studies of representative current or proposed policy-induced modal shifts using the analytical methodology. To conduct the project, the research team secured access to the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) microdata—the most comprehensive freight dataset in the United States—complemented it with confidential shipper data and modal data, and used state-of-the-art econometric modeling techniques.

Project NCFRP-44

English

199p

2019

NCFRP Research Report

9780309480901

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Data analysis; Econometric models; Freight transportation; Methodology; Modal shift; Mode choice; Transportation policy

Freight Transportation; Highways; Motor Carriers; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Railroads

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 19 2019 3:06PM