Abstract:
This procedure (which assumes that existing socioeconomic data are already completed) involves the following steps: develop the control total for the number of trip productions (P's) and attractions (A's) by purpose; add new developments by zone, that are known to be coming; divide the study area into developed area and undeveloped area; for developed areas, determine growth potential for each zone, adjust potential by using appropriate factors, and apply the factors directly to the existing P's and A's according to purpose; for undeveloped areas, flag zones that will be developed by target year according to percentage developed; apply average trip rate per developed unit according to purpose; add the total P's and A's compare with the control total, and adjust as necessary; and continue the distribution. The procedure makes the following asumptions: newly developed areas will be similar in characteristics to the typical existing developed areas, and the error in trip rates is probably less than that introduced by a zone-by-zone 20-year forecast.
Supplemental Notes:
This paper appeared in TRB Special Report 187, Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities, Proceedings of a Workshop sponsored by UMTA and FHWA, conducted by TRB, Sarasota, Florida, 3-6 December 1978. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
