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Title:

FORECASTING AIRPORT TRAFFIC: MEXICO CITY AS A CASE STUDY

Accession Number:

00311192

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Find a library where document is available


Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309029872

Abstract:

A procedure for preparing forecasts of airport traffic is presented, and its use is illustrated through application to Mexico City. The underlying objectives are to identify the principal factors that cause changes in airport traffic and then to develop a model of how these causes specifically influence growth. In view of the demonstrably poor overall performance of purely theoretical forecasts, a pragmatic approach is recommended in which much emphasis is placed on identifying key causes of growth. The procedure recommended involves four phases: a detailed examination of the data to determine unusual or particular events, identification of the principal causes of past and future changes, introduction of these causal factors into statistical analyses to extend recent patterns of activity into short-range forecasts, and, finally, creation of long-range forecasts with suitably wide margins of uncertainty by use of scenarios of possible developments. The case study illustrates each of these phases. The results suggest that much of future airport traffic will be caused by external influences, such as the total recreational expenditures of the United States, and is beyond the influence of airport planners. (Author)

Supplemental Notes:

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Monograph Accession #:

01411560

Authors:

Zuñiga, Sergio
de Neufville, Richard
Kanafani, Adib
Olivera, Antonio

Pagination:

pp 24-30

Publication Date:

1979

Serial:

Transportation Research Record

Issue Number: 732
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

ISBN:

0309029872

Media Type:

Print

Features:

Figures (10) ; References (25) ; Tables (1)

Geographic Terms:

Mexico City (Mexico)

Old TRIS Terms:

Mexico City (Mexico)

Subject Areas:

Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Jun 26 1980 12:00AM

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