00311190

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1979/732/732-002.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...hani&publication_year=1979

Time-series models for 10 international air travel markets are calibrated. These models are used to analyze traffic developments and to investigate whether conventional models of traffic demand can be used to forecast international air traffic. The models use simple specifications in which demand is represented by per capita income and intercountry trade flows and supply is represented by prevailing fares. Because of data limitations, no attempt is made to model demand and supply simultaneously. The results of the analysis are encouraging and indicate that, although the use of traffic demand modeling in analyzing international air traffic has many limitations, there is a good potential for developing this methodology into a useful forecasting aid. (Author)

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411560

pp 5-14

1979

Transportation Research Record

0309029872

Print

Figures (12) ; References (1) ; Tables (3)

Demand; Economic forecasting; International trade; Markets; Mathematical models

Aviation; Economics; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting

TRIS, TRB

Jun 26 1980 12:00AM

• AIRLINE DEREGULATION AND ITS IMPACTS ON INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND
• AIRPORT PLANNING: A CONSULTANT'S VIEWPOINT
• ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF AIRCRAFT TO PROFILES OF UNLOADED AND LOADED PAVEMENTS
• AVIATION FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS AND DISCONTINUITIES: SURVEY RESULTS
• BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS OF VERBAL INTERACTION BETWEEN PILOTS AND AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS
• COST FORECASTING FOR INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE OPERATIONS
• DECISION TOOL FOR ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY OF AIRPORT TERMINAL BUILDINGS
• FORECASTING AIRPORT TRAFFIC: MEXICO CITY AS A CASE STUDY
• GUIDELINES FOR EVALUATING CHARACTERISTICS OF AIRPORT LANDSIDE VEHICLE AND PEDESTRIAN TRAFFIC
• PROPOSED TECHNIQUE FOR IDENTIFICATION OF MARKET POTENTIAL FOR LOW-COST AIR TRAVEL
• TWO PROGRAMS TO EASE AUTOMOBILE CONGESTION AT LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT