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Title:

AVIATION FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS AND DISCONTINUITIES: SURVEY RESULTS

Accession Number:

00311189

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Find a library where document is available


Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309029872

Abstract:

Results of a survey of air transportation forecasters, planners, and researchers from four global regions and six industry sectors are reported. The survey results cover four major areas: the overall business environment in aviation, markets and prices, competition and regulation, and operations and technology. Wide variations in assumptions among the 120 respondents are noted in several important factors such as price levels, price elasticity, and the effect of changing government regulations on airline routes and operations. The most important assumptions identified by the respondents include changes in real air fares and real economic growth, the availability and price of jet fuel, government regulation, airport and airway capacity constraints, and inflation. The most important modifiers--defined as discontinuities (or surprises)--include the disruptive impact of a prolonged oil embargo by the oil-producing nations, a major recession, further large cuts in air-fare discounts, and automobile gasoline rationing. (Author)

Supplemental Notes:

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Monograph Accession #:

01411560

Authors:

Raphael, David E

Pagination:

pp 1-4

Publication Date:

1979

Serial:

Transportation Research Record

Issue Number: 732
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

ISBN:

0309029872

Media Type:

Print

Features:

Figures (1) ; Tables (4)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Fuel costs

Subject Areas:

Aviation; Energy; Finance; Highways; Law; Planning and Forecasting

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Jun 26 1980 12:00AM

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