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Title:

Modeling Bicycle–Vehicle Crash Frequency on Urban Roads Using Demographic, Land Use, and Network Characteristics

Accession Number:

01659550

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

The focus of this paper is to examine the role of demographic, land use and network characteristics on risk to bicyclists on urban roads and to develop macroscopic bicycle-vehicle crash frequency models (safety performance functions) for urban roads. Mecklenburg County in North Carolina was considered as the study area. Reported bicycle-vehicle crash data from 2010 to 2015 along with demographic, land use and network characteristics data was obtained from the local agencies. Data within one-mile buffer (vicinity) of 119 randomly selected locations was then captured. Data for 99 randomly selected locations was used for modeling, while data for the remaining 20 randomly selected locations was used for validating the models. Six alternate models were developed considering various combinations of explanatory variables, land use and network characteristics, that are not correlated to each other. As bicycle-vehicle crash dataset used was observed to be over-dispersed (variance greater than the mean), Negative Binomial log-link distribution based models were developed. The validation dataset was used to compare the estimated bicycle-vehicle crash frequency from each model with the actual bicycle-vehicle crash frequency. The results obtained from analysis and modeling indicate that bicyclists are at a significantly higher risk of getting involved in a crash while traveling on segments with no bicycle lane, with traffic lights, with 45 mph as speed limit, and, commercial activity, research activity and institutions, multi-family residential units (densely populated) and heavy industrial areas.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANF20 Standing Committee on Bicycle Transportation.

Report/Paper Numbers:

18-06540

Language:

English

Authors:

Pulugurtha, Srinivas S
Mukoko, Kanya K

Pagination:

17p

Publication Date:

2018

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Subject Areas:

Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-06540

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 8 2018 11:41AM