01658557

Component

The main object of this paper is to test the hypotheses of whether evacuation decision making observed in hurricane context arises due to rational decision making or from herd behavior. To test the hypotheses, the authors make use of economic discrete choice theory and model evacuation decisions at individual household level. The evacuation decision is modeled as a time dependent sequential choice. The authors estimate two time-dependent sequential decision making models. The first model uses major predictors of hurricane evacuation as indicated in the literature and excludes variables that might influence evacuation decision making through social networks. In the first model, households do not take decisions made by their peers into consideration while arriving at the final decision. However, in the second model, in addition to the major predictor variables, the households consider decisions made by their peers in their social network through association with social networks. Evacuation predictor variables such as action taken by emergency managers, risk area characteristics, storm characteristics and decisions made by social networks are used in the study. The findings suggest that evacuation decision making is mostly rational when the risks posed by an approaching storm are unambiguously disseminated by emergency managers. However, households do rely on social cues in assessing future expected risks faced by them. The findings from this study could be of potential use to emergency managers and transportation engineers in guiding hurricane evacuation transportation analyses.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABR30 Standing Committee on Emergency Evacuations. Alternate title: Rational Choice or Herd Behavior: An Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Decision Making in Hurricane Sandy

18-05376

English

16p

2018

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Behavior; Choice models; Decision making; Disasters and emergency operations; Emergency management; Evacuation; Households; Hurricanes; Information dissemination; Social factors

Hurricane Sandy, 2012

Rational behavior

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-05376

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 11:21AM