01658836

Component

After years of silence, this paper informs the travel behavior community about progress in the development of the new version of the Albatross. It upgrades previous versions by including new mobility options such as electric cars, car sharing, and Mobility as a Service, and adds social networks to the synthesized population. More fundamentally, it transforms a single day forecasting system into a multiday dynamic forecasting system, in which long-term dynamics are linked to short term dynamics in activity-travel patterns. To that end, a dynamic synthetic population generator is developed, modules predicting behavioral change due to life trajectory events are added and an improved scheduler is implemented. In addition, the scope of the system is extended, linking activity travel participation and scheduling decisions to weather conditions and simulating energy and emissions consequences of activity travel behavior. Finally, Albatross IV uses parallel computing technology, significantly reducing computing times of the system. The paper systematically outlines the motivation behind each change/addition to the system, discusses the modeling approach and positions the changes in the literature in transportation research.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting. Alternate title: Albatross IV: From Single-Day to Multi–Time Horizon Travel Demand Forecasting

18-00460

English

15p

2018

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

References

Computer models; Electric automobiles; Forecasting; Mobility; Travel behavior; Travel demand; Vehicle sharing

Social networking

ALBATROSS (Computer model)

Time horizons

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-00460

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 10:07AM