01649938

Monograph

http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/176645.aspx

This report presents guidelines for travel-forecasting practitioners to (1) assess the suitability and limitations of their travel forecasting methods and techniques to address specific policy and planning questions; (2) scope model development or improvements so as to attain the desired policy sensitivity within constraints such as institutional, budget, model development time, and resources; and (3) communicate limitations and any improvements to decision makers. This research builds on and supplements existing literature and documentation of available travel-forecasting methods and techniques. Past guidance on methods did not effectively connect travel-forecasting techniques to increasingly complex planning activities. In response, this research identifies applicable methods by evaluating agencies’ planning programs, desired performance metrics, requirements, and constraints. Methods are ranked by costs and benefits so users can review the determinants of each method and weight the requirements so that selected methods reflect an agency’s specific priorities. Planning and policy questions addressed by the research cover a broad range of issues: long-range planning; performance-based planning; safety; project prioritization; traffic impact study; operational analyses; pricing study; air quality and climate change analyses; transit analyses; walk and bike activity forecasting; freight planning; environmental justice analyses; economic impact analyses; emergency management; and other planning issues that models are often asked to address. Each of the planning and policy issues identified are coupled to a set of information needs, such as (a) level of temporal and spatial flows by market segment, (b) volume and speed outputs, (c) mode of travel, (d) travel cost, (e) travel delay, and (f) other relevant performance metrics. The guidelines include an interactive decision support software tool, TFGuide, which illustratively and systematically guides the practitioner through the selection of methods and techniques based on application needs, resource constraints, available data, and existing model structure. The TFGuide is available at https://rguide.rsginc.com. NCHRP Web-Only Document 234: Developing a Method Selection Tool for Travel Forecasting documents the research behind the development of the method selection process and resulting software tool.

Project 08-94

English

276p

2017

NCHRP Research Report

9780309446587

Digital/other

Appendices; Figures

Alternatives analysis; Benefit cost analysis; Decision support systems; Performance measurement; Policy analysis; Toll roads; Traffic forecasting; Transportation planning; Transportation policy

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Oct 30 2017 10:28AM