00308575

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http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1979/722/722-001.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...COOK&publication_year=1979

This paper investigated the application of analysis techniques develoepd by Box and Jenkins to freeway traffic volume and occupancy time series. A total of 166 data sets from three surveillance systems in Los Angeles, Minneapolis, and Detroit were used in the development of a predictor model to provide short-term forecasts of traffic data. All of the data sets were best represented by an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) (0,1,3) model. The moving-average parameters of the model, however, vary from location to location and over time. The ARIMA models were found to be more accurate in representing freeway time-series data, in terms of mean absolute error and mean square error, than moving-average, double-exponential smoothing, and Trigg and Leach adaptive models. Suggestions and implications for the operational use of the ARIMA model in making forecasts one time interval in advance are made. /Author/

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Freeway Operations. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01411553

pp 1-9

1979

Transportation Research Record

0309029724

Print

Figures (8) ; References (19) ; Tables (5)

Accuracy; Data analysis; Forecasting; Freeways; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Time series; Traffic flow

Occupancy

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management

TRIS, TRB

Apr 22 1980 12:00AM

• AUTOMOBILE DIVERSION: A STRATEGY FOR REDUCING TRAFFIC IN SENSITIVE AREAS
• DELAY, TIME SAVED, AND TRAVEL TIME INFORMATION FOR FREEWAY TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
• DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A FREEWAY PRIORITY-LANE MODEL
• DEVELOPMENT OF A TRANSPORT SYSTEM MANAGEMENT PLANNING PROCESS IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY REGION
• DEVELOPMENT OF FREEWAY INCIDENT-DETECTION ALGORITHMS BY USING PATTERN-RECOGNITION TECHNIQUES
• EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF PARKING RESTRICTIONS AND MODAL USE
• EVALUATION OF THE I-35 ROUTE REDESIGNATION IN SAN ANTONIO
• FREFLO: A MACROSCOPIC SIMULATION MODEL OF FREEWAY TRAFFIC
• HIGH-OCCUPANCY VEHICLE CONSIDERATIONS ON AN ARTERIAL CORRIDOR IN PENSACOLA, FLORIDA
• IMPROVED AIR QUALITY THROUGH TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM MANAGEMENT
• INCIDENT-DETECTION ALGORITHMS PART 1. OFF-LINE EVALUATION
• INCIDENT-DETECTION ALGORITHMS. PART 2. ON-LINE EVALUATION
• PLANNING RAIL STATION PARKING: APPROACH AND APPLICATION
• RESULTS OF IMPLEMENTING LOW-COST FREEWAY INCIDENT-MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES
• SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS IN THE USE OF ON-STREET PARKING