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Title:

Does an Interaction between Glance Duration and Closure Rate Cause Rear-End Crashes?

Accession Number:

01628168

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Victor and colleagues analyzed rear-end crash and near-crash (hereafter, CNC) events from the Strategic Highway Research Program Phase 2 naturalistic driving study. Using statistical modelling techniques, they estimated the CNC risk as a function of a coincident off-road glance with a positive closure rate of the lead vehicle. They concluded that there was an interaction effect, such that an off-road glance at an “inopportune” moment (when there was a rapid closure rate), increased CNC risk. The current paper compares their published data on the last glance before an event, and the closure rate at the time of that last glance, to the last glance and closure rate in baseline driving without a CNC, using the standard epidemiological methods of stratification and logistic regression. A rapid closure rate substantially increased relative crash risk, as expected from physics. Long glances alone were also causal for a CNC, and short glances alone were not, in agreement with Victor and colleagues. However, contrary to the conclusion of Victor and colleagues, glance duration did not interact with closure rate. The predominant CNC cause was a rapid closure rate alone, irrespective of whether a short or long off-road glance was co-incident or not. One possible explanation for the discrepancy is that Victor and colleagues used a custom statistical model, and analyzed only CNC cases, without comparison to baseline driving controls. The current study used standard epidemiological methods to compare the last glance duration and closure rates of CNC cases to those in baseline driving controls.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AND30 Standing Committee on Simulation and Measurement of Vehicle and Operator Performance.

Monograph Accession #:

01618707

Report/Paper Numbers:

17-06039

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Young, Richard A

Pagination:

17p

Publication Date:

2017

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References (15) ; Tables

Subject Areas:

Highways; Safety and Human Factors

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-06039

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 8 2016 12:26PM