01628836

Component

Over the past 100 years, there is a significant shift in global climate. The unexpected levels of variability in climate has an adverse impact on the pavement performance. The climate is one of the critical inputs for the design of pavements. Currently, designers use the historical weather patterns for developing pavements and predicting their performance. Various changing climate predicting models are available for highway engineers. However, the output from each model is significantly different, and designers should comprehend the variability in the models. Even though climate change is a global problem, the type and range of impacts are very geographical sensitive. Generalization of climate change impacts on all geographic locations even within a state is not appropriate. The primary focus of this study is to document the dissimilarity in climate predicting models and variation in climate change in different geographical locations of the same state. To address this objective, the authors used six climate prediction models from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) databases. A typical pavement performance for four Cities Dallas, Amarillo, Corpus Christi, and El Paso of Texas are evaluated using Pavement Mechanistic-Empirical (ME) Design software. Despite the difference in predicted climate values by six climate models, all models showed a definite change in the future climate. The pavement distresses increase with the future climate scenario compared to the historical weather data, and its variation is noticeably different for the four cities. Each city needs a unique modified design to endure changing climate.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFD60 Standing Committee on Design and Rehabilitation of Asphalt Pavements.

01618707

17-05944

English

17p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Climate change; Forecasting; Highway engineers; Mechanistic-empirical pavement design; Pavement distress; Pavement performance

Amarillo (Texas); Corpus Christi (Texas); Dallas (Texas); El Paso (Texas)

Environment; Highways; Pavements

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-05944

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 12:23PM