01628048

Component

This empirical study sheds light on the correlation of traffic links under different traffic regimes. The authors mimic the behavior of real traffic by pinpointing the correlation between 140 freeway traffic links in a sub-network of the Minneapolis - St. Paul freeway system with a grid-like network topology. This topology enables us to juxtapose positive correlation with negative correlation, which has been overlooked in short-term traffic forecasting models. To accurately and reliably measure the correlation between traffic links, the authors develop an algorithm that eliminates temporal trends in three dimensions: (1) hourly dimension, (2) weekly dimension, and (3) system dimension for each link. The correlation of traffic links exhibits a stronger negative correlation in rush hours, when congestion affects route choice. Although this correlation occurs mostly in parallel links, it is also observed upstream, where travelers receive information and are able to switch to substitute paths. Irrespective to the time-of-day and day-of-week, a strong positive correlation is witnessed between upstream and downstream links. This correlation is stronger in uncongested regimes, as traffic flow passes through consecutive links more quickly and there is no congestion effect to shift or stall traffic. The extracted correlation structure can augment the accuracy of short-term traffic forecasting models.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHB20 Standing Committee on Freeway Operations.

01618707

17-05883

English

17p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Cartographic grids; Correlation analysis; Network analysis (Planning); Network links; Peak hour traffic; Traffic congestion; Traffic flow; Traffic forecasting

Minneapolis (Minnesota); Saint Paul (Minnesota)

Data and Information Technology; Highways

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-05883

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 12:22PM