01628772

Component

Natural disasters such as a hurricane can cause great damages to the transportation networks and significantly affect the evacuation trip operations. An accurate understanding and measurement of the network vulnerability can enhance the evacuees’ preparedness and responding capabilities during an emergency incident. This paper presents a game theory based approach to the analysis of the network vulnerability under a hurricane evacuation. A game is constructed between a router, who is committed to seek the minimum-cost path for the evacuation travelers, and a tester, who wants to maximize the travel cost by disturbing the links. In the game process, the distribution of evacuation demand is elastic because the probability of selecting an evacuation destination is determined by the path risk and travel cost. In addition, the congestion effect is considered, and a solution strategy based on the method of successive averages (MSA) is adopted. Over a sample network, the proposed method is compared with other three methods for the network vulnerability analyses. Furthermore, the method is applied to the vulnerability analysis of a large scale network in Mississippi Gulf coast area.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABR30 Standing Committee on Emergency Evacuations.

01618707

17-04812

English

20p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Costs; Disaster preparedness; Evacuation; Game theory; Hurricanes; Networks; Risk assessment; Routes and routing; Traffic congestion

Mississippi Gulf Coast

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-04812

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 11:51AM