01626142

Component

Transit ridership levels often exhibit strong seasonal fluctuations. Transit agencies regularly assume these fluctuations are characterized by peaks during the fall and spring months and valleys in the winter and summer months, which is supported by the existing literature. This study uses transit bus ridership data in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area and demonstrates that these assumptions are not valid when examining ridership at the route level. Substantial variation exists in seasonality across routes, both in terms of amplitude and patterns of the peaks and valleys. Applying rules based on aggregate patterns to all routes may result in considerable errors at the route level. The results of this study can be directly applied to improve transit customer service and origin-destination sampling plans and to better align service levels with demand. Furthermore, this study describes a rigorous methodology for identifying seasonality that can be applied by any transit agency or travel behavior modeler to quickly identify seasonal variations in ridership at granular levels.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP050 Standing Committee on Bus Transit Systems. Alternate title: Route-Level Variability in Transit Ridership Seasonality

01618707

17-02641

English

9p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References

Impacts; Level of service; Public transit; Ridership; Routes; Seasons; Travel behavior

Seasonal factors

Minneapolis (Minnesota); Saint Paul (Minnesota)

Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-02641

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 11:00AM