01626168

Component

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) potentially increase vehicle travel by reducing travel and parking costs and by providing improved mobility to those who are too young to drive or older people. The increase in vehicle travel could be generated by both trip diversion from other modes and entirely new trips. Existing studies however tend to overlook AVs’ impacts on entirely new trips. There is a need to develop a methodology for estimating possible impacts of AVs on entirely new trips across all age groups. This paper explores the impacts of AVs on car trips using a case study of Victoria, Australia. A new methodology for estimating entirely new trips associated with AVs is proposed by measuring gaps in travel need at different life stages. Results show that AVs would increase daily trips by 4.14% on average. The 76+ age group would have the largest increase of 18.5%, followed by the 18-24 age group and the 12-17 age group with 14.6% and 11.1% respectively. If car occupancy remains constant in AV scenarios, entirely new trips and trip diversions from public transport and active modes would lead to a 7.31% increase in car trips. However increases in car travel are substantially magnified by reduced car occupancy rates, a trend evidenced throughout the world. Car occupancy would need to increase by at least 5.3% to 7.3% to keep car trips unchanged in AV scenarios.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting.

01618707

17-00317

English

12p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Automobile travel; Demand; Intelligent vehicles; Trip generation; Vehicle occupancy

Induced demand

Victoria (Australia)

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-00317

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 10:00AM