00300677

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http://onlinepubs.trb.org...s/trr/1978/694/694-010.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...gram&publication_year=1978

A study completed in 1975 considered the economics of electrifying the Cincinnati-Atlanta main line of the Southern Railway System. The differential cash flow of electric operation versus diesel operation, computed over the interval 1975-2002, yielded a 6.0 percent rate of return for electrification. This paper summarizes a study that applied plausible variations in energy prices to the operating scenarios used in the 1975 study. Two time intervals were chosen for analysis, taking a 2-year construction period for electrical facilities, followed by 26 years of operation. The first interval, 1975 through 2002, is identical to that of the initial study. For this interval, if the price of diesel fuel is taken as its maximum and dollar inflation is ignored, the rate of return for electrification ranges from 9.8 to 6.1 percent, depending on the price of electrical energy; if an annual dollar inflation of 10 percent is included, the corresponding rates are 20 and 15 percent. If the price of diesel fuel is taken as its minimum and dollar inflation is ignored, the rate of return for electrification is less than 35 percent; if an annual dollar inflation of 10 percent is included, the rate of return is less than 10 percent. The second interval was 1983 through 2010. For this interval, if the price of diesel fuel is taken as its maximum and dollar inflation is ignored, the rate of return for electrification ranges from 13 to 9.2 percent, again depending on the price of electrical energy; if an annual dollar inflation of 10 percent is included, the range of rates is 23 to 19 percent. If the price of diesel fuel is taken as is its minimum and inflation is ignored the rate of return for electrification is less than 5 percent; if an annual inflation of 10 percent is included, the rate of return ranges from 7 to 10 percent.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Track Structure System Design. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

01411530

pp 68-72

1978

Transportation Research Record

030902840X

Print

Figures (5) ; References (6)

Cash flow; Diesel fuels; Economic analysis; Electric power supply; Energy consumption; Inflation; Operating costs; Planning; Railroad electrification; Return on investment

Southern Railway

Economics; Energy; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads

TRIS, TRB

Sep 29 1979 12:00AM

• ANALYTICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF RESIDUAL STRESS IN RAILS
• BALLAST AND SUBGRADE RESPONSE TO TRAIN LOADS
• DEVELOPMENT OF MULTILAYER ANALYSIS MODEL FOR TIE-BALLAST TRACK STRUCTURES
• INTRODUCTION TO STRESSES IN RAILS: STRESSES IN MIDRAIL REGIONS
• MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR LATERAL THERMAL BUCKLING AND DISPLACEMENT OF CURVED TRACK
• PERMANENT-DEFORMATION BEHAVIOR OF RAILWAY BALLAST
• PREDICTION OF FATIGUE CRACK GROWTH IN RAILROAD RAILS
• STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION OF SERVICE LOADS FOR CONCRETE CROSSTIE TRACK
• TECHNIQUES FOR EVALUATING EFFECTS OF TRACK AND VEHICLE WEAR ON FREIGHT-CAR PERFORMANCE