01593351

Component

Decision making on transport investments based on cost benefit analysis, relies strongly upon accurate demand forecasting in order to properly capture the users’ benefits. For that reason, we need proper methods, models, and data collection techniques that could better predict, for example, how personality factors can influence travel demand. In this work, the authors study the role of personality factors on demand forecasting and the outcome of the consequent cost-benefit analysis. Data include transport mode level of service attributes, socio-demographic information and personality indicators of attitude, affection and habit. These data are used to estimate two demand models. One of the models does not incorporate personality factors whilst the other does it through a latent variables approach when necessary. Different model specifications are studied in this case, finding that the one incorporating just the habit indicator performs better in statistical terms. These models are used to forecast demand levels for different transport modes, when assessing the implementation of public transport exclusive lanes in the city of Concepcion, Chile. After applying the Chilean cost benefit analysis methodology, results show that the net benefit and other economic indicators perform worse when personality factors are considered in the modelling. Actually, when these attributes are not taken into account, demand level and benefits are larger. As a consequence, the omission of these attributes might lead to an overestimation of demand levels and project benefits, altering the efficient outcome of the decision making process. As a consequence, it seems that instrumental, socio-demographic and personality attributes should be considered into the modelling of demand when studying transport public investments.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting.

01584066

16-3375

English

13p

2016

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Benefit cost analysis; Bus lanes; Case studies; Decision making; Investments; Level of service; Mode choice; Personality; Travel demand

Concepcion (Chile)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-3375

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 12 2016 5:29PM