01592729

Component

The rapid increasing population in downtown of Chengdu has caused a series of urban problems, such as traffic congestion, land shortage and environmental pollution. The government of Chengdu hopes to divert the population in downtown area to the seven satellite cities, in order to alleviate urban problems. The high-quality commercial, medical and education facilities had always been gathered in downtown area, while these facilities in satellite city still need to be completed. It is important to study the people’s preference and the influence factor for emigration behavior, so as to guide the commercial, medical and education facilities to be allocated reasonably in satellite cities. In this paper, the authors divided all households into five types by family structure, and calibrated Logit model using stated preference (SP) data to get key factors which could significantly affect the emigration behaviors of five types of household. Meanwhile, the authors also forecasted the emigration probability for the five types of household respectively. The result shows that the most important factor that impact family emigration behavior significantly is the accessibility between satellite city and downtown. Because of the different family structure, the five types of household have evident preference difference on the accessibility between residence and education, as well as medical facilities. If there is efficient commuting mode between satellite city and downtown, the household containing a single-person or only a couple have a relatively high probability for immigrating to the satellite city. If satellite city lacks relatively developed education and medical facilities, the other three types of household (the household containing a couple with child, the household containing a couple with both child and old people, the household containing only old people) have low probability of emigrating even if the accessibility between satellite city and downtown is better.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE90 Standing Committee on Transportation in the Developing Countries.

01584066

16-3125

English

14p

2016

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Accessibility; Households; Logits; Stated preferences; Travel behavior; Urbanization

Chengdu (China)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-3125

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 12 2016 5:23PM