01552156

Component

Existing components of transportation networks are continuously exposed to a range of environmental and operational stressors during their service life. Reports on the extent of deterioration due to site-specific stressors, however, greatly depend on the judgment of individual inspectors. Considering the fact that the inspection reports are one of the main references to plan for the future maintenance activities, it is critical to quantify the effects of human judgment factor on the prediction of the condition state of deteriorating structures. Since the errors and deviations originated from this factor may affect the entire life-cycle performance and cost analyses, the current study presents a stochastic approach to systematically investigate the condition-based maintenance strategies under human judgment uncertainties. For this purpose, the thinking process of inspectors is modeled within a probabilistic framework using Brunswikian theory and Probabilistic Mental Model. A Markov decision process is, then, utilized to model the deterioration process considering a range of exposure conditions. The deterioration states of the structures under investigation are categorized into five ranks and the corresponding transition matrices are determined based on an exponential hazard model. By introducing a set of inspection intervals and maintenance criteria, the operational life-cycle cost is estimated by taking into account various confidence levels for the inspection reports. The outcome of this study is expected to be directly implemented into the decision-making algorithms developed to identify the most appropriate inspection and maintenance activities for a range of components used in civil infrastructure

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHD20 Pavement Maintenance.

01550057

15-5854

English

13p

2015

Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Condition surveys; Decision making; Human factors; Inspection; Inspectors; Life cycle costing; Maintenance management; Structural deterioration and defects

Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; I60: Maintenance

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2015 Paper #15-5854

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 30 2014 1:57PM