01556572

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2495-02

The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure is currently preparing the 2015 Federal Transport Investment Plan. Because this effort includes an update to the overall methodology of the ministry’s cost–benefit analysis, both the value of reliability (VOR) and the value of travel time (VOT) for personal and business travel will be estimated. The VOT will replace a set of existing values, but the VOR will be estimated for the first time because they are not yet incorporated in the standard appraisal. A two-stage approach was used for data collection: first respondents reported about current trips (revealed preference), and then these responses were systematically varied to become the basis for stated preference experiments. This paper presents the findings of estimating the VOR. In the stated preference experiments the reliability of the travel modes was presented with different formats. The final model formulation differed in the definition of reliability for private and public transport. For car trips, saving travel time had more value for the respondents than reducing the variability. The calculated VOR for the mean expected unscheduled delay of public transport trips was slightly lower than the VOT; this result indicates that the reliability was less important to the respondents than the relevant travel time saving. A mean expected unscheduled delay of 1 min and 1 min of standard deviation are almost equivalent to 1 min of travel time saving (reliability ratio). Because this was the first official estimation of VOR and VOT for Germany, the values should be reconsidered and updated on a regular basis.

01594381

15-2265

English

pp 14–22

2015

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309369565

Print

Figures (4) ; References (36) ; Tables (2)

Benefit cost analysis; Data collection; Revealed preferences; Stated preferences; Transportation modes; Value of time

Value of reliability

Germany

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 30 2014 12:48PM

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