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Title:

PREDICTIONS OF INTERCITY MODAL CHOICE FROM DISAGGREGATE, BEHAVIORAL, STOCHASTIC MODELS

Accession Number:

00242601

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309021774

Abstract:

THIS PAPER REPORTS THE RESULTS OF SOME EMPIRICAL PREDICTION TESTS ON DISAGGREGATE, BEHAVIORAL, STOCHASTIC MODELS OF MODAL CHOICE. IT IS DISCOVERED THAT THE EXPECTED-NUMBER CALCULATION (SUMMATION OF PROBABILITIES) YIELDS MODAL-CHOICE PREDICTIONS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF ACCURACY, ALTHOUGH A CAVEAT IS IN ORDER REGARDING THE TRANSFERABILITY OF SUCH MODELS: THEY SHOULD BE TRANSFERRED WITH CARE AND ONLY TO SIMILAR SITUATIONS. THE STABILITY OF THE MODELS IS EVIDENCED BY THE FACT THAT THEY CAN BE BROKEN DOWN BY TRIP PURPOSE AND REAGGREGATED WITHOUT LOSS OF PREDICTIVE POWER. FINALLY, THE METHOD OF OBTAINING PREDICTIONS BY CLASSIFYING PROBABILITIES IS CONSIDERED AND REJECTED.

Supplemental Notes:

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Social, Economic, and Environmental Factors of Transportation. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Monograph Title:

Travel behavior

Monograph Accession #:

01410360

Authors:

Watson, Peter L

Pagination:

pp 28-35

Publication Date:

1973

Serial:

Highway Research Record

Issue Number: 446
Publisher: Highway Research Board

Conference:

52nd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board

Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
Date: 1973-1-22 to 1973-1-26

ISBN:

0309021774

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

References (4) ; Tables (2)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Models

Old TRIS Terms:

Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Jan 11 1974 12:00AM

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