01519021

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2461-08

This paper presents an optimization-based probability adjustment approach that enables an analyst to minimize the error and bias in estimating freeway reliability performance measures by using a small sample of reliability scenarios. The freeway facilities travel time reliability methodology proposed for the Highway Capacity Manual 2010 can produce up to 24,000 scenarios to be evaluated for estimating the travel time distribution. The methodology uses a deterministic scenario generation approach to account for any possible operational condition of freeway facilities. In addition to processing time considerations, the large number of scenarios poses analytical challenges because (a) a detailed assessment and scrutiny of individual scenarios cannot be performed and (b) the customized selection of active traffic management is infeasible. The proposed method allows the analyst to adjust the selected scenario probabilities to estimate the real-world freeway performance measure better with a manual biased sample. The biased sampling probability adjustment method is applied to two real-world case study examples. These illustrate that the population travel time distribution can be approximated adequately through the probability adjusted sample. Findings from this research have implications for proposed reliability and active traffic management methodologies in the Highway Capacity Manual 2010. The number of scenarios can be greatly reduced from several thousand to less than 100 while maintaining the shape of the reliability distribution and key performance measures of the scenario population.

01557687

14-5325

English

pp 58–65

2014

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309295550

Print

Figures (2) ; References (20) ; Tables (6)

Freeway operations; Highway capacity; Highway traffic control; Optimization; Probability; Quality of service; Sampling; Travel time

Highway Capacity Manual 2010

Active traffic management

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I70: Traffic and Transport

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 3:52PM

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• Assessment of Level of Service on Freeways by Microscopic Traffic Simulation
• Capacity Estimation for Weaving Segments Using a Lane-Changing Model
• Comparison of Estimates of Travel Time Losses on High-Capacity Roads
• Determining Level of Service on Freeways and Multilane Highways with Higher Speeds
• Developing Improved Truck Passenger Car Equivalent Values at Signalized Intersections
• Estimating the Mean Critical Gap
• Estimation of Roundabout Entry Capacity Under the Impact of Pedestrians by Applying Microscopic Simulation
• Evaluation of the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual Urban Street Free-Flow Speed Prediction Model
• Impact of Modeling Parameters on the Highway Capacity Manual–Based Procedure to Estimate Reliability of Freeway Corridors
• Influence of Undesignated Pedestrian Crossings on Midblock Capacity of Urban Roads
• Investigation of Saturation Flow on Shared Right-Turn Lane at Signalized Intersections
• Lane Utilization at Two-Lane Arterial Approaches to Double Crossover Diamond Interchanges
• New Methodology to Determine Work Zone Capacity Distribution
• Temporal and Spatial Gap Acceptance for Minor Road at Uncontrolled Intersections in India
• Traffic Congestion Evaluation Method for Urban Arterials: Case Study of Changzhou, China