01515084

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2455-01

An increase in the vulnerability of the nation’s roadway network to changes in climatic conditions has become an issue of significant concern. Heavy rainfall and high temperatures are examples of climatic factors that can affect pavement performance and conditions in a detrimental way. Some of these effects, specifically on costs associated with constructing and maintaining roads, may not be significant in the short term but may become significant in the long term. The objective of this study was to present a framework to use system dynamics to understand the long-term impact of climate change on pavement performance and maintenance activity. A system dynamics model was created with available pavement performance and climate change data, and the effects on various key factors, such as pavement life and maintenance cost, were evaluated through simulation. Preliminary results show that the long-term effects of changes in air temperature, rainfall, seawater–level rise, and number of hurricanes on pavement performance are significant and that costs are expected to increase significantly (>160% in 100 years) and nonlinearly. From these findings, recommendations are made for obtaining more accurate and reliable data on relevant climate change factors and for using a system dynamics approach to integrate the multidisciplinary topics of climate change, pavement design and performance, and economics into comprehensive studies.

01555808

14-2796

English

pp 1–9

2014

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309295482

Print

Figures (7) ; References (35)

Climate change; Costs; Deterioration by environmental action; Maintenance; Pavement design; Pavement performance; Simulation

System dynamics

Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Pavements; I60: Maintenance

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 2:57PM

• Aggregating and Modeling Automated Pavement Condition Survey Data for Flexible Pavements for Use in Pavement Management
• Calibration and Validation of Condition Indicator for Managing Urban Pavement Networks
• Considering Safety Impacts of Skid Resistance in Decision-Making Processes for Pavement Management
• Estimating Vehicle Operating Costs Caused by Pavement Surface Conditions
• Florida’s Return on Investment from Pavement Research and Development
• Investigating Consistency in Highway Performance Monitoring System and Pavement Management Reporting
• Probabilistic Life-Cycle Assessment as Network-Level Evaluation Tool for Use and Maintenance Phases of Pavements
• Safety Impact of Pavement Conditions
• Use of Finite Element Analysis and Fatigue Failure Model to Estimate Costs of Pavement Damage Caused by Heavy Vehicles