01477974

Component

This paper describes an approach to predict casualty rates in the Flanders region of Belgium. The objective of the paper is to demonstrate the strength of the proposed approach that combines the decomposition method with a disaggregate analysis as a prediction approach to study road safety problems. The prediction for the Flanders region will hereby serve as an illustration for this approach. The evolution of the number of casualties is explained by its components exposure and risk, where exposure is further decomposed into population numbers and the travel patterns of its individuals. Upon the decomposition a disaggregate approach is followed to take into account the various differences in exposure and risk that exist between distinct subgroups. A reduction of the number of casualties with 57% is found in 2020 compared to 2001. Our approach however also allows to determine the relative contribution of each component to the casualty rate. Because of the different trends in population, exposure and risk, casualty numbers evolve differently for different groups. Therefore their share in the total traffic casualties will change and new target groups for road safety policy emerge. In Flanders older women will be such new target group since it will become one of the most sizeable casualty groups.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.

01470560

13-5302

English

16p

2013

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Cluster analysis; Crash risk forecasting; Decomposition; Demographics; Fatalities; Highway safety; Travel behavior

Flanders (Belgium)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2013 Paper #13-5302

TRIS, TRB

Feb 5 2013 1:00PM