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Title: Modeling the Risk of Advanced Deterioration in Bridge Management Systems
Accession Number: 01476168
Record Type: Component
Record URL: Availability: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Find a library where document is available Abstract: The Florida Department of Transportation (DOT) has developed a set of risk models for its bridge management system; the models are built into its existing Excel-based project-level and network-level decision support tools and are intended for eventual use in AASHTO’s Pontis 5.2. One of these new models is an analysis of the risk associated with advanced deterioration. This model extends the reach of Florida’s existing deterioration models to estimate the likelihood of service disruption if a badly deteriorated element should be unrepaired. The Florida DOT maintains data about demolished and replaced bridges as inactive records in its Pontis database. The condition and characteristics of the removed bridges were statistically analyzed to explore the reasons for the end of each bridge’s life. On the basis of the available data, including information on load posting and reconstruction, the likelihood of service disruption was reasonably quantified. The best models developed in the research used a combination of linear and lognormal forms and reflected the buildup of risk caused by repeated Markovian deterioration as well as the typical delay that occurred between the observation of the deteriorated conditions and the resulting action to replace or reconstruct the bridge. As a by-product of the research, a linear failure probability model was developed; the model is suitable for Pontis releases up to 4.5. This model will be helpful to bridge owners who do not have their own source of estimates for the probability of bridge element failure.
Monograph Title: Maintenance and Preservation 2013, Volume 1, Including 2013 Thomas B. Deen Distinguished Lecture Monograph Accession #: 01500226
Report/Paper Numbers: 13-3151
Language: English
Authors: Thompson, Paul DSobanjo, John OKerr, RichardPagination: pp 52–59
Publication Date: 2013
ISBN: 9780309286862
Media Type: Print
Features: Figures
(2)
; References
(7)
; Tables
(5)
TRT Terms: Identifier Terms: Geographic Terms: Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; I24: Design of Bridges and Retaining Walls; I60: Maintenance
Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Feb 5 2013 12:38PM
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