01475248

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2386-09

http://scholar.google.com...adis&publication_year=2013

A surrogate measure called the aggregated crash propensity metric (ACPM) is proposed for simulation-based conflict studies to allow for relative comparisons and safety evaluations among intersection designs. A probabilistic crash propensity model is developed to determine the crash probability of simulated conflicts by introducing the distributions of reaction time and maximum braking rates. This model is able to generate the ACPM for three different crash types: crossing, rear end, and lane change. An experimental validation effort was conducted by simulating 12 intersections through the simulation package VISSIM. The surrogate safety assessment model is used to extract useful conflict data for entry into the model to estimate the ACPM. The Spearman rank tests indicate that the ACPM is able to identify the relative safety among traffic facilities and treatments. Notably, the ACPM outperforms the Highway Safety Manual procedures in rank tests. Preliminary efforts to correlate the ACPM with crashes and to use it as a crash predictor indicate that regression models are well fitted for the ACPM and predicted real crash frequency; this finding suggests that its potential is directly linked to real crashes.

01514599

13-1512

English

pp 72–80

2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309287036

Print

Figures (3) ; References (28) ; Tables (2)

Crash risk forecasting; Highway design; Highway safety; Intersections; Simulation; Traffic conflicts; Traffic crashes

Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:23PM

• Analysis of Crash Severity Based on Vehicle Damage and Occupant Injuries
• Application of Stochastic Gradient Boosting Technique to Enhance Reliability of Real-Time Risk Assessment: Use of Automatic Vehicle Identification and Remote Traffic Microwave Sensor Data
• Assessment of Exposure Proxies for Macroscopic Road Safety Prediction
• Crash Databases in Australasia, the European Union, and the United States: Review and Prospects for Improvement
• Developing Truck Corridor Crash Severity Index
• Effects of Public Rest Areas on Fatigue-Related Crashes
• Evaluation of Postencroachment Time as Surrogate for Opposing Left-Turn Crashes
• Evolutionary Game Theoretic Approach to Rear-End Events on Congested Freeway
• Examining Heterogeneity of Driver Behavior with Temporal and Spatial Factors
• Exploring Behavioral Responses of Motorists to Risk-Based Charging Mechanisms
• Feasibility of Incorporating Reliability Analysis in Traffic Safety Investigation
• Full Bayes Before-and-After Evaluation of Traffic Safety Improvements in City of Edmonton, Canada
• Hot-Spot Identification: Categorical Binary Model Approach
• Identification of Crash-Contributing Factors: Effects of Spatial Autocorrelation and Sample Data Size
• Identifying Primary and Secondary Crashes from Spatiotemporal Crash Impact Analysis
• Motion Prediction Methods for Surrogate Safety Analysis
• On-Duty Struck-By Crashes: Characteristics and Contributing Factors
• Safety and Operational Benefits of Variable Speed Limits Under Different Traffic Conditions and Driver Compliance Levels
• Safety Evaluation of Horizontal Curves on Rural Undivided Roads
• Screening Naturalistic Driving Study Data for Safety-Critical Events