01476406

Component

In San Diego County, California, residents of Mexico make an estimated 350,000 trips daily and account for twenty-one percent of weekday boardings on the local light rail system. To adequately plan for this market, a border intercept survey and activity diary was used to develop a tour-based microsimulation model of travel made by Mexican residents within the region. Given an exogenous macroeconomic forecast of the total number of border crossings, the model predicts the volume of travelers using each port of entry, the locations of primary destinations within San Diego County, the frequency and locations of intermediate stops, the modes of travel across the border and between stateside locations, and the contributions from Mexican residents to highway and transit facility usage in the United States. The model’s design is compared and contrasted with typical external cordon methods and recently developed bi-national models. Empirical results show that the sensitivity of external cordon travel forecasting methods to characteristics of international border areas can be substantially enhanced with this approach.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values.

01470560

13-0892

English

19p

2013

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Border regions; Cordon counts; International borders; International travel; Microsimulation; Traffic forecasting; Travel behavior

Mexico; San Diego (California)

Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2013 Paper #13-0892

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:17PM