01476161

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2386-05

http://scholar.google.com...-Aty&publication_year=2013

The feasibility of using reliability analysis methods in traffic safety analyses is investigated. The reliability analysis approach, frequently used to evaluate the probability of failure of a specific structural system, has two main outcomes: the reliability index and the design points. Two approaches to using these two outcomes in traffic safety analyses are presented. Data from a mountainous freeway in Colorado are used. The reliability index is used to evaluate the hazardous freeway segments by incorporating the traffic flow parameters provided by radar detectors. The design points are employed to evaluate real-time crash occurrence risk at the disaggregate level with weather parameters. Finally, results of the reliability analysis approach are compared with the results of traditional methods. The reliability analysis method shows promising application in traffic safety studies. With the use of the reliability indexes, the three most hazardous freeway segments are identified. Moreover, with the design points, the accuracy rate of predicting crash occurrence is improved by 10.53% as compared with the logistic regression method.

01514599

13-0477

English

pp 35–41

2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309287036

Print

Figures (1) ; References (23) ; Tables (4)

Crash rates; Crash risk forecasting; Freeways; Reliability (Statistics); Traffic flow; Traffic safety; Weather conditions

Colorado

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:13PM

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• Evaluation of Postencroachment Time as Surrogate for Opposing Left-Turn Crashes
• Evolutionary Game Theoretic Approach to Rear-End Events on Congested Freeway
• Examining Heterogeneity of Driver Behavior with Temporal and Spatial Factors
• Exploring Behavioral Responses of Motorists to Risk-Based Charging Mechanisms
• Full Bayes Before-and-After Evaluation of Traffic Safety Improvements in City of Edmonton, Canada
• Hot-Spot Identification: Categorical Binary Model Approach
• Identification of Crash-Contributing Factors: Effects of Spatial Autocorrelation and Sample Data Size
• Identifying Primary and Secondary Crashes from Spatiotemporal Crash Impact Analysis
• Motion Prediction Methods for Surrogate Safety Analysis
• On-Duty Struck-By Crashes: Characteristics and Contributing Factors
• Safety and Operational Benefits of Variable Speed Limits Under Different Traffic Conditions and Driver Compliance Levels
• Safety Evaluation of Horizontal Curves on Rural Undivided Roads
• Screening Naturalistic Driving Study Data for Safety-Critical Events
• Surrogate Safety Measure for Simulation-Based Conflict Study