01474959

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2376-01

http://scholar.google.com...egie&publication_year=2013

Understanding evacuation response behavior is critical for public officials in deciding when to issue emergency evacuation orders for an impending hurricane. Such behavior is typically measured by an evacuation response curve that represents the proportion of total evacuation demand over time. This study analyzes evacuation behavior and constructs an evacuation response curve on the basis of traffic data collected during Hurricane Irene in 2011 in Cape May County, New Jersey. The evacuation response curve follows a general S-shape with sharp upward changes in slope after the issuance of mandatory evacuation notices. These changes in slope represent quick response behavior, which may be caused in part by an easily mobilized tourist population, lack of hurricane evacuation experience, or the nature of the location, in this case a rural area with limited evacuation routes. Moreover, the widely used S-curves with different mathematical functions and the state-of-the-art behavior models are calibrated and compared with empirical data. The results show that the calibrated S-curves with logit and Rayleigh functions fit empirical data better. The evacuation behavior analysis and calibrated evacuation response models from this hurricane evacuation event may benefit evacuation planning in similar areas. In addition, traffic data used in this study may also be valuable for the comparative analysis of traffic patterns between the evacuation periods and regular weekdays and weekends.

01505854

13-0285

English

pp 1–10

2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309286954

Print

Figures (6) ; References (39)

Disasters and emergency operations; Evacuation; Hurricanes; Logits; Rayleigh waves; Traffic data; Traffic volume

Cape May County (New Jersey)

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Security and Emergencies; I70: Traffic and Transport

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:12PM

• Improving Transportation Resource Coordination for Multimodal Evacuation Planning: Literature Review and Research Agenda
• Learning from Crisis: Transit Evacuation in Honolulu, Hawaii, After Tsunami Warnings
• Modeling of Bus Transit Driver Availability for Effective Emergency Evacuation in Disaster Relief
• No-Notice Evacuation Management: Ramp Closures Under Varying Budgets and Demand Scenarios
• Predictive Quality of a Time-Dependent Sequential Logit Evacuation Demand Model
• Roundabout Performance Evaluation in a Network Evacuation: A Case of Intelligent Decomposed Network Simulations
• Sensitivity of Evacuation Performance Estimates to Evacuee Route Choice Behavior
• Using National Household Travel Survey Data for the Assessment of Transportation System Vulnerabilities