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Title:

Incorporating Weather Effects in HCM Reliability Analysis

Accession Number:

01473214

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

This study details a methodology for incorporating weather effects in an Highway capacity manual (HCM) based Freeway Reliability analysis. The methodology is capable of estimating historical weather probabilities as well as predicting future year weather probabilities by weather condition from a 10 year historical average probability database. Probabilities for historical analyses are directly calculated from detailed hourly weather reports for the period of time that freeway reliability is reported. The methodology is applied for the 101 largest metropolitan areas in the US to create a probability database for use in a probabilistic scenario generator to incorporate non-recurring effects in HCM freeway operations analysis. In addition to presenting the methodology, sample results are validated at four locations. Probabilities of each weather type are shown with a confidence interval based on the variability of probabilities by year within the 10 year sample. Finally, prediction errors are calculated with multiple sample sizes. The results show that prediction errors stabilize near the 10 year sample size.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AH010 Surface Transportation Weather.

Monograph Accession #:

01470560

Report/Paper Numbers:

13-0227

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Chase Jr, R Thomas
Hajbabaie, Ali
Schroeder, Bastian J

Pagination:

18p

Publication Date:

2013

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2013-1-13 to 2013-1-17
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Identifier Terms:

Highway Capacity Manual

Geographic Terms:

United States

Subject Areas:

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2013 Paper #13-0227

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Feb 5 2013 12:12PM