01367688

Component

An important planning and policy question in the transportation, energy, and environment areas is whether or not air quality control and the associated funding preference and mitigation efforts to attain air quality conformity have indeed led to traveler behavior changes such as reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or VMT growth rates. In this research, the authors develop statistical models to analyze the relationship between air quality nonattainment designation and VMT between 1966 and 2008 based on observed data. These models employ different statistical methods, including hypothesis testing, multiple regression, and simultaneous equations. Findings from all statistical models and datasets are consistent, and suggest there is a statistically significant negative correlation between nonattainment designation and VMT/VMT growth. For instance, the simultaneous equation model, arguably the most advanced model developed in this research, suggests that if a nonattainment area and an attainment area that are similar in all other aspects (population composition, socio-economics, urbanization, fuel price, vehicle stock, etc.) are compared, the VMT in the nonattainment area will be 1.75% less than that in the attainment area in the short run, and 7.34% less in the long run. When results from all models are synthesized, the short-run VMT reduction effects of nonattainment designation range from 1.13% to 1.75%, and the long-run effects range from 3.54% to 7.34%. While these results show strong statistical evidence that efforts in reducing VMT in nonattainment areas have been successful, future research should be conducted to attribute the VMT reduction effects to specific policy instruments for decision-making (e.g. the Congestion Management and Air Quality Improvement program, the conformity regulation in the transportation planning process, etc.).

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC20 Transportation and Air Quality

01362476

12-4596

English

20p

2012

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Appendices; Figures; References; Tables

Air quality management; Environmental policy; Nonattainment areas; Statistical analysis; Vehicle miles of travel

Energy; Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; I15: Environment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-4596

TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2012 5:25PM